Trading Numbers is a collection of my journal and other articles about the wild world of crypto trading, well specifically BTC.

I trade BTC on a 15 minute time-frame by focusing on market structure, volume, orderflow, liquidity, and post-trade review.

This project was born out of something I've been asking myself for the better part of the last four years: how do I actually get good at trading?

After going through it all (buying signals, watching a tonne of YouTube, joining a bunch of Discord servers), things started clicking when I realised the following:

  1. Each individual trade is random - it really is the flip of a coin, because in the end, no one can predict the market
  2. You need a strategy that has a positive expected value - this is something that really clicked for me. Over the long term (i.e. 100+ trades), your results should show that you ultimately earn more than you lose. Whether that takes the form of a high win rate with low-ish winnings, or a lower win rate with large returns, you should be seeing positive results
  3. You need a winning system - Which needs to really have requirements and parameters that you can quantify

The journal is a record of what I am seeing, what I am testing, and how the system changes over time.

The goal is simple: improve the process, track the numbers, and stay honest.

At the end of the day, trading is a numbers game (hence the name which I'm quite proud of).

Thanks for reading. Now kick on with The Journal.